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Stocks Are Not as Risky As You Think

You often hear stocks described as a risky asset class. What people are getting at when they say that is that stock prices at some times go dramatically up and at other times go dramatically down. Most...

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“The Focus on Active/Passive Is a Distraction”

There’s good stuff going on at the Vanguard Diehards board lately. Petrocelli offers us a dose of The Common Sense That May Not Be Spoken when he says: “My conclusion after all these years is this: the...

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Why Buy and Hold Investing Can Never Work

Stock valuations matter. Stocks obviously offer a stronger value proposition at fair or low prices than they do at insanely high prices. But the Buy-and-Hold concept calls for investors to ignore...

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“The Choice to Remain at the Same Allocation in the Face of Dramatic...

Set forth below is the text of a thread-starter that I recently put to the Goon Central board: You say that valuations really do affect long-term returns but that this insight is not “actionable.” The...

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Investors Who Do Not Engage in Long-Term Timing Are Not Exercising Price...

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently put to a discussion thread of this blog: So B&H’ers are sloggers, not timers. You insult the Buy-and-Holders with these words, Banned. You...

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“Look at Where Things Stood in 2000. You Took on More Risk Than Any Stock...

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to another blog entry at this site: If stock markets level out and volatility falls, then to my mind the equity risk premium would dry up...

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“Investors Will No Longer Have a Bias in Favor of Stocks Once We Permit...

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently put to another blog entry at this site: and stocks would be indistinguishable from bonds. The returns on non-stock asset classes ARE generally...

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“You Cannot Touch Investor Emotions. You Cannot Hold Them in Your Hands. They...

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the Goon Central board: Rob, you’re confusing a casual observation with a physical constant.  No, I’m not, Yip. I am accepting that it...

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Goon Poster to Rob: Does It Concern You That the Mean P/E10 Could Very Well...

Set forth below is the text of a comment that was recently posted to another blog entry at this site: Rob, Does it concern you that there have been many market timing strategies that have been...

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Site Visitor to Rob: “Historically, Valuations Have Had Some Effect on Future...

Set forth below is the text of a comment recently put to another thread at this site by a regular site visitor, followed by my response: Can you name a single person who’s either pure BH or pure VII as...

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Bogle Goon to Rob: “Today’s PE Has Some Correlation to Future Stock Returns....

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the discussion thread for another blog entry at my site: “valuations affect long-term returns”. Well, obviously. Today’s P/E or...

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“Say That Reason Is 50 Percent of Stock Investing and That Emotion Is 50...

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the discussion thread for another blog entry at this site: Can you show us the research that proves your allegations of death threats?...

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“If We Need to Consider Valuations When Planning a Retirement, We Need to...

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the discussion thread for another blog entry at this site: “Because, it someone says that one of the things that I say is right, they...

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“If Fama Is Right, the Risk of a Crash Is Not Greater Today Than at Any...

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the discussion thread for another blog entry at this site: “I don’t do criminal.” You don’t do sane either. In fact you don’t do much...

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Buy-and-Holder to Rob: “If Stocks Were Not Volatile and Were Risk-Free, They...

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the discussion thread for another blog entry at this site: It is not true that we would ‘see the same 6.5%’. If stocks were not...

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